Dutch Valley Food Distributors

Quarterly Commodity Market Update

Last Updated: January 20, 2012

Apricots: The apricot crop looks to be stable. However, apricots are still substantially higher than years ago because of new regulations between the government and farmers in Turkey controlling/manipulating costs.

Almonds: The new almond crop is sizeable. However, it needs to be to keep up with the increase in export shipments. The fourth quarter was record breaking. Demand does not show any signs of easing especially with the higher prices of other nuts. The way some nut markets have been trending almonds are now a bargain nut. Almonds should remain firm in price with small increases and decreases depending on how demand continues. However, any problems with the bloom in Feb/Mar and there could be some significant increases in the market.

Cocoa: The cocoa market has finally eased. However, powder continues to demand a premium due to overstocked amounts of butter. Even though the political situation in the Ivory Coast has settled, there is concern for the quality of beans that were stored during the political unrest. There is also a question on how good the next crop (mid-crop) will be. Compounds continue to be effected by high sugar and oil prices as well as the cocoa powder. Chocolate and Compound pricing should continue to soften through 2012, but cocoa powder is expected to remain high.

Coconut: Coconut pricing has started to retreat as more has become available. Product is still much higher than in the past few years, but is slowly getting better. However, it does take time for the lower pricing to trickle down due to extended lead times for product. We won’t see much of the positive effects until after Easter.

Cashews: Cashews have finally peaked and have dropped off. The decline should continue as long as demand stays as low as it has been. If demand picks up due to the lower cost, or if there are any problems with the various countries’ crops that grow cashews, pricing could reverse direction.

Oats: Oats are still higher than a year ago, just like many grains, but seem to have stabilized at the moment. Pricing should remain relatively steady.

Peanuts: The Peanut market is at historic highs. Usually a very stable market, peanut pricing has skyrocketed and there is no sign of it coming back in 2012. Drought in the southern US along with farmers planting more cotton instead of peanuts has resulted in a severe lack of supply situation. Just think of all the items that have peanuts, peanut butter or other peanut ingredients in them, and you will understand how significant this situation is. All peanut items are expected to continue at historic highs through new crop this fall.

Pecans: Most if not all of the pecans are harvested and it is the “on” year. However, this has not translated into a large crop. Last year’s crop was the “off” year but was sizeable. This year’s crop is small for an “on” year. With the mediocre sized crop and continued strong export demand, pecans will remain high.

Pineapple/Papaya/Mango: Tropical fruit pricing remains firm due to poor crops, high demand, and a weaker US dollar.

Pistachios: California pistachios continue to remain high in price. There does appear to be enough pistachios to meet demand, but some of the foreign crops have not fared so well. Pricing may start to climb as we move through the year.

Raisins: Raisins are going to be a real problem in 2012. The new crop is late and small. The season was too cool and damp. Plus it rained on a sizeable portion of the crop while drying; this adds to production costs and can create quality issues. The cool wet summer in CA has also made it difficult to find grapes that are acceptable to dry for golden raisins and meet necessary specifications. Golden raisins will be very high in price and availability could be an issue. Raisins are going to be at historic highs through 2012. The only positive is that they still remain the least expensive natural dried fruit ingredient.

Sugar: The sugar market remains unstable and still very high. World supply has increased but so has demand. Also, through various governments’ regulations product has not been able to come to market fast enough to cover demand. There is no relief expected in pricing until the second half of 2012.

Walnuts: The walnut crop came in smaller than expected. Actually even less than last year’s crop which had sold out early. A significant portion, about 55%, of the walnut crop has already been sold. The industry is basically stating that walnuts will run out before new crop is available in late fall. Walnuts are currently very expensive and are only expected to get worse.

Wheat: The wheat market is still somewhat volatile. Dry weather in Brazil and Argentina is causing a concern for crop damage and/or loss. Also, there are concerns that a heavier snow cover is needed in the U.S. Plains and Canada or there could be potential for winterkill. The future continues to look volatile for the wheat market.